
China, which bought more than $12 billion of U.S. soybeans last year, has been largely absent from the market since Beijing imposed a 25% tariff on U.S. shipments on July 6. That tariff was a retaliation for U.S. duties on Chinese goods.
The stoppage has left U.S. exporters without their main buyer.
China took about 60% of U.S. soybean exports, so the lost demand weighs on U.S. soybean prices and export basis. Buyers should expect firm supply availability in the U.S. unless the tariffs are lifted.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.