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Grain markets opened lower on August 5, 2019 after reports that China told its grain buyers to stop purchasing US grain, which were later partly walked back. China also allowed the yuan to weaken past seven per US dollar.
Analysts expect choppy trade ahead of the August WASDE.
Reported Chinese purchase halts threaten US export demand for corn and soybeans, while a weaker yuan makes US exports more expensive for Chinese buyers. Signs of a trade-war currency response add risk, though the walk-back limits the damage.
iowaagribusinessradionetwork.comStaff EditorAug 5, 2019After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 40 past bullish trade events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half +0.0% to +1.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On Aug 5 China reportedly told buyers to halt US grain purchases and let the yuan weaken past 7 per dollar, a direct demand and currency shock that opened corn sharply lower on the day of the move.
