
Grain futures fell on Tuesday after China cancelled more U.S. corn cargoes and traders questioned the USDA export and ethanol projections. Uncertainty also rose over whether Russia would renew the Black Sea Grain Deal, with a four-way meeting planned among Russia, Ukraine, the UN and Turkey.
Weaker Chinese purchases and a possible USDA cut to export forecasts would raise U.S. corn carry-out, pressuring prices. Any failure to extend the Ukraine grain deal could tighten Black Sea wheat and corn supplies and support prices.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.