
USDA projects 2023 fiscal-year US farm exports of $193.5 billion, down $2.5 billion, with drought cutting grain and feed exports by $1.3 billion and beef exports down $1.1 billion on tight supplies. The USTR is also reviewing Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports, which remain in place for now.
Lower projected grain and feed export volumes add to a softer export outlook, while persistent tariffs on Chinese goods keep trade flows constrained.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.