Loading…
The IRI June climate briefing says sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have cooled to borderline La Niña levels. Its model runs give cool-neutral or weak La Niña a 45-50% probability for the July-September through September-November seasons.
Rising La Niña odds raise the chance of drier conditions in parts of South America and wetter ones in Australia, which could shift export supply expectations for grains and oilseeds. The signal is still weak, so price impact is limited for now.
iri.columbia.eduJun 22, 2020After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
