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A Science Advances study by Columbia University, IFPRI and Huazhong Agricultural University finds ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation can cause synchronous crop failures across major grain-producing regions. The research challenges the assumption that geographically distant breadbaskets rarely fail together.
If major exporters can fail at the same time, global stocks buffers are weaker than assumed, which supports a risk premium in grain and oilseed prices.
mari.hzau.edu.cnJul 25, 2020After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
