
ICRA says lower domestic gas prices will cut production costs for Indian urea producers and reduce subsidy needs. The government-mandated domestic gas price for October 2020 to March 2021 fell to $1.79/mmbtu, the lowest since the Rangarajan formula was introduced, while phosphoric acid prices are rising.
Cheaper gas lowers the cost of urea production in India, which can ease pressure on global prices if domestic output rises. Higher phosphoric acid costs squeeze phosphatic fertilizer producers.
After 59 past bearish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -5.0% to +5.2%), and -2.0% over 20.
After 10 past neutral macro events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.5%), and -3.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.