Latam FX fails to shake off virus, election worries

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jul 23, 2020Latam FX weakens, Brazil's real comes off one-month high | Financial Post-1.7%
• Oct 29, 2020Latam FX steadies after selloff; Oil-linked currencies slide | Financial Post+4.6%
• Oct 30, 2020Commodity currencies slide on oil, dollar braces for election | Financial Post+7.3%
• Mar 25, 2022Thai baht, Asian FX gain as oil prices come off the boil | Financial Post-11.6%
• Jun 24, 2020C$ dips as pickup in coronavirus cases weighs on sentiment | Financial Post-2.8%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2019Latam markets subdued as trade woes persist | Financial Post-0.2%
• Sep 13, 2022Latam FX slump as hot U.S. inflation sends dollar soaring | Financial Post+1.4%
• Jan 27, 2022Strong dollar hits Latam FX, Russian assets rise | Financial Post+0.1%
• Feb 16, 2023Stocks fall on strong U.S. inflation data, Colombian peso leads FX losses | Financial Post+0.5%
• Dec 9, 2021Strong dollar weighs on Latin American currencies | Financial Post+0.8%

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Sep 14, 2021Latam FX falls as U.S. inflation optimism fizzles out | Financial Post+2.3%
• Jul 23, 2020Latam FX weakens, Brazil's real comes off one-month high | Financial Post+1.0%
• Jan 29, 2021Brazil's real lags Latam FX on a barrage of weak data | Financial Post+0.5%
• Dec 14, 2022Latam FX slides ahead of U.S. Fed decision, unrest in Peru weighs | Financial Post-1.3%
• Sep 30, 2019Latam markets subdued as trade woes persist | Financial Post-2.3%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.