Latin American currencies fell on Tuesday after US inflation data came in softer than expected, leaving the Fed's next move uncertain. The regional currency index fell 0.5% and Brazil's real dropped 0.6% against the dollar.
Politics around Bolsonaro and the Supreme Court also weighed on the real.
Brazil's weaker real and political risk push up the local cost of its soy and corn exports, which can support dollar export prices. Softer US inflation data can ease dollar strength over time.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.