Latin American currencies slid ahead of the US Fed decision, and Brazil's real fell 0.7% to two-week lows after data showed October economic activity contracted. Peru's sol fell 0.1% as protests linked to Castillo's arrest left at least six people dead in mining regions.
Brazil's weaker growth and Peru's unrest raise currency and supply risks. A softer real supports Brazilian export competitiveness in soymeal and corn, while mining disruption in Peru, a major copper producer, is a broader macro concern rather than a direct feed driver.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.