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Latin American currencies weakened after the dollar jumped on the Federal Reserve's signal of earlier rate hikes, while Chile's central bank surprised markets with a 150bp hike to 5.5%. Russia's rouble rose 2% after the Kremlin left room for dialogue over the Ukraine crisis.
A stronger dollar and higher US yields raise the cost of dollar-priced grain and meal for emerging-market importers, which can weigh on demand and pressure prices. Geopolitical easing in Russia may slightly reduce Black Sea risk premium.
financialpost.comReutersJan 27, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
