
Pakistani urea sales rose 81% year on year in June 2020 as dealers rebuilt inventory ahead of expected price increases. Cumulative urea sales for the first half of 2020 fell 7% after a locust attack and weak maize performance.
Urea prices were 8% lower in June, and DAP sales rose 12%.
The June jump reflects one-off restocking and pre-buying rather than a durable demand shift, so underlying urea demand remains soft. Lower domestic prices limit the price signal for nitrogen inputs.
After 26 past neutral report events, UREA moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 38 past neutral report events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.6%), and +3.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.