
Traders are positioning ahead of the June 30 USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports, with corn acres expected near 94.99 million after fertilizer price swings from the Iran war and wet weather. Corn stocks are forecast at the highest since 1988.
Expected acreage cuts and record-high corn stocks would weigh on balance-sheet expectations, while fertilizer costs from the Iran conflict affect planting decisions. Feed buyers should watch the report's effect on corn supply.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 26 past neutral report events, Urea moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.