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ADM Investor Services recapped the November 10 USDA report against trade expectations. US corn production came in at 14,507 million bushels versus 14,659 expected, and corn carryout at 1,702 million versus 2,033 expected.
Soybean carryout was 190 million bushels versus 235 expected, while world corn and soybean stocks also came in below estimates.
Carryout numbers well below trade expectations signal a tighter supply balance for corn and soybeans, supporting feed grain and soybean meal prices. Record projected corn exports further drain available supplies.
admis.comADMIS Research TeamNov 10, 2020After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Corn carryout of 1,702M bushels versus 2,033M expected was a large bullish surprise relative to trade expectations.
