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NOAA Research published a piece on how climate change may alter El Niño and La Niña, tied to a new American Geophysical Union book with 21 chapters on ENSO. The article describes ENSO as the largest year-to-year driver of climate variability affecting agriculture worldwide.
This is background research on long-term ENSO behavior with no immediate change in crop supply, so price impact is negligible for feed markets.
research.noaa.govKristina KiestNov 10, 2020After 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 2,447 past report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 349 past report events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
