Forecasting commodity returns by exploiting climate model forecasts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation

After 3,207 past report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Feb 16, 2017Brazil forecasts record soy and corn harvests, on good climate conditions — MercoPress-0.3%
• Mar 28, 2018Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations | Nature Communications+3.3%
• Jul 1, 2019ENSO forecast mash-ups: What’s the best way to combine human expertise with models? | NOAA Climate.gov+1.3%
• Nov 11, 2020AgriMarketing.com - Ag Commodity Prices Surge On USDA's Reduced Yield Forecasts+7.9%
• Mar 30, 2023FAPRI-MU Outlook forecasts price retreat for most commodities-0.5%

After 2,389 past report events, SOY moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Mar 28, 2018Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations | Nature Communications-0.4%
• Dec 17, 2016Companies are underestimating the risks of deforestation in their commodities supply chains-4.6%
• Jul 1, 2019ENSO forecast mash-ups: What’s the best way to combine human expertise with models? | NOAA Climate.gov-2.7%
• Nov 11, 2020AgriMarketing.com - Ag Commodity Prices Surge On USDA's Reduced Yield Forecasts+2.8%
• Mar 30, 2023FAPRI-MU Outlook forecasts price retreat for most commodities+2.3%

After 2,447 past report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Mar 28, 2018Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations | Nature Communications+1.0%
• Jul 1, 2019ENSO forecast mash-ups: What’s the best way to combine human expertise with models? | NOAA Climate.gov-9.6%
• Nov 11, 2020AgriMarketing.com - Ag Commodity Prices Surge On USDA's Reduced Yield Forecasts-3.1%
• Mar 30, 2023FAPRI-MU Outlook forecasts price retreat for most commodities-11.1%
• Jun 13, 2017Commodity forecaster tipping cut to winter crop production, but still expected to be fifth largest harvest - ABC News+0.8%

After 349 past report events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Dec 17, 2016Companies are underestimating the risks of deforestation in their commodities supply chains-1.2%
• Jul 1, 2019ENSO forecast mash-ups: What’s the best way to combine human expertise with models? | NOAA Climate.gov-2.4%
• Jan 1, 2025Earth observation as enabler for implementing the EU regulation on deforestation-free products | npj Climate Action-10.6%
• Sep 1, 2017Enhancing Resilience to Extreme Climate Events: Lessons from the 2015-2016 El Niño Event in Asia and the Pacific+5.5%
• Apr 23, 2024A map of the world's forests to support the EU Regulation on Deforestation-free Supply Chains | Cirad-0.1%