◂ Event Timeline

Mar 28, 2018REPORTGlobal

Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations

A Nature Communications study finds that during 1961–2010 crop productivity was significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation (ENSO, IOD or NAO) across two-thirds of global cropland. The authors also report new possible links between NAO and crop productivity in Africa and the Middle East.

WHY IT MATTERS

Recurring ENSO, IOD and NAO cycles mean a large share of global crop yields is exposed to predictable weather shocks, which can support price risk planning for feed grains. The findings are structural and do not signal an immediate supply change.

AFFECTSCorn◆Soybeans◆Wheat (SRW)◆

SOURCE
nature.comHeino, Matias, Puma, Michael J., Ward, Philip J., Gerten, Dieter, Heck, VeraMar 28, 2018

Price reaction & history

Corn◆neutralSO FAR1d -0.1%5d +3.3%20d +4.9%

After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

Nov 8, 2019Nation's corn crop is shrinking | 2019-11-08 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.0%
Mar 22, 2018Study: Climate effects on ag yields vary by location, crop | IANR News-0.2%
Sep 2, 2020Corn market still mulling impacts of derecho, Chinese buying spree | 2020-09-01 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.4%
Feb 18, 20212019 Covered Commodity Dashboard and Implications for the Crop Safety Net - farmdoc daily+0.8%
Aug 24, 2023Conab analyzes conditions of second and third harvest crops - Revista Cultivar-2.8%

Soybeans◆neutralSO FAR1d -0.1%5d -0.4%20d +0.8%

After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.

Mar 22, 2018Study: Climate effects on ag yields vary by location, crop | IANR News-1.1%
Nov 9, 2022WASDE reveals small crops are done getting smaller | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.9%
Dec 9, 2022USDA’s WASDE leaves most grain and oilseed estimates unchanged | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.9%
May 12, 2020Corn ending stocks grow but not like traders expected | 2020-05-12 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.9%
Aug 12, 2019USDA trims corn, soybean acres off June estimates | 2019-08-12 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.7%

Wheat (SRW)◆neutralSO FAR1d -0.1%5d +1.0%20d +4.9%

After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.

Feb 18, 20212019 Covered Commodity Dashboard and Implications for the Crop Safety Net - farmdoc daily+1.6%
Jun 19, 2023Australia’s national wheat production dips while global crops prove ‘significantly’ bigger than expected | Countryman+2.6%
Aug 24, 2023Conab analyzes conditions of second and third harvest crops - Revista Cultivar-4.9%
Apr 21, 2023A larger corn crop is expected globally-8.6%
Mar 11, 2020‘Benign’ WASDE makes minimal changes in numbers | 2020-03-10 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-4.9%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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