
The FAPRI-MU annual U.S. Baseline Outlook projects that prices for most crops, poultry and dairy retreat in 2023 from recent peaks, with net farm income falling from 2022 record levels. Consumer food price inflation is projected at 4.4% in 2023 and under 2% in 2024, assuming crop yields return to trend.
Projected price declines for corn, soybeans and wheat indicate lower feed grain values if yields normalize, while the outlook sees lower poultry and dairy prices that reduce demand pressure on feed costs.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.