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The federal National Climate Assessment warns that Midwest whiplash between excessive moisture and drought could reduce corn yields and disrupt the region's agriculture. The report also projects more frequent flooding in the Midwest.
Long-term yield risk from climate volatility supports a modest risk premium in corn and soybeans, but the report does not change near-term supply.
nprillinois.orgJuanpablo Ramirez-FrancoNov 16, 2023After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
