◂ Event Timeline

Apr 18, 2016REPORTGlobal

Corn and wheat will drop to 10-year low

AgResource forecasts that record South American harvests will push December corn futures down about 25% to around $2.80 per bushel and July wheat down 14% to about $4, with soybeans also falling toward $7.60. Argentina's expanded crop and currency devaluation are expected to boost exports.

WHY IT MATTERS

Expected large South American supplies and higher Argentine exports point to lower feed grain and soymeal prices through the coming season, favoring buyers.

AFFECTSCORN▼WHEAT▼SOY▼SBM▼

SOURCE
graintrade.com.uaApr 18, 2016

Price reaction & history

CORN▼bearishSO FAR1d +1.4%5d -0.1%20d +3.7%

After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.

Aug 13, 2021Drought Scorches U.S. Corn, Soy, and Wheat Crops-1.7%
Sep 15, 2023USDA report triggers corn and soybean price drop, wheat remai ...-7.1%
Jul 12, 2017Corn, winter wheat drag grains lower, as US supply-4.1%
May 12, 2023USDA: Corn and soy production will outpace demand in coming year-8.7%
Oct 15, 2024October WASDE: Top takeaways for corn, soybeans and wheat-0.1%

WHEAT▼bearishSO FAR1d -0.3%5d -0.5%20d +3.0%

After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

Jul 12, 2017Corn, winter wheat drag grains lower, as US supply-2.2%
Apr 20, 2017Importer Ending Stocks Shrink to 6-Year Low - U.S. Wheat Associates+1.3%
Dec 16, 2025December WASDE Surprises Corn and Wheat Markets | CZ app+0.3%
Mar 31, 2025USDA reports mixed grain stocks, with wheat up and corn down-1.5%
Jan 4, 2025Wheat Collapses into the Weekend, with Marketing Year Low in Export Business - IBest Media-1.5%

SOY▼bearishSO FAR1d -0.2%5d +3.2%20d +10.4%

After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.

Sep 30, 2021U.S. grains: Wheat futures surge as supplies drop to 14-year low - Grainews-3.3%
Aug 13, 2021Drought Scorches U.S. Corn, Soy, and Wheat Crops-5.6%
Sep 15, 2023USDA report triggers corn and soybean price drop, wheat remai ...-3.7%
Jul 12, 2017Corn, winter wheat drag grains lower, as US supply-3.5%
May 12, 2023USDA: Corn and soy production will outpace demand in coming year-7.6%

SBM▼bearishSO FAR1d -1.0%5d +5.3%20d +22.0%

After 399 past bearish report events, SBM moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.

Nov 12, 2019WASDE Lowers Wheat, Corn and Soybean Forecasts | AgWired+0.2%
Oct 1, 2024Corn and Soybean Prices Collapse Due to Big Crop Estimates-5.5%
Apr 12, 2017USDA Crop Reports Bearish for U.S. Corn, Wheat and Soybean Markets - Northern Ag Network+0.5%
Jul 19, 2022The Mighty US Crop Markets Through 2030: Our Long-term Outlook for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat - Rabobank+3.2%
Jul 12, 2023Record-Large Corn Crop, Higher Stockpiles Send Grain and Soy to Big Losses+5.0%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

CORN · GP ▸

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WHEAT · GP ▸

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