
USDA estimated the 2021 corn crop at 14.75 billion bushels and soybeans at 4.34 billion, both among the largest on record. The wheat crop was forecast at 1.7 billion bushels, the smallest in 19 years due to drought in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Large corn and soybean crops point to ample feed supply and firmer wheat prices as a smaller crop tightens wheat supplies. Feed buyers face cheaper corn and soy but higher wheat costs.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.