USDA forecasts US 2018/19 wheat production at 49.7 million metric tons, up 5 percent but 11 percent below the 5-year average. Global wheat prices averaged $203 per ton in 2017/18, up 4 percent, as world consumption exceeded production for the first time since 2012/13.
Tighter global wheat balance and smaller Black Sea and HRW supplies support export prices, favoring higher wheat prices for feed buyers.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.