U.S. Wheat Associates reports global high-protein wheat production in 2017/18 is down as much as 39% from average. U.S. high-protein HRS production fell 26% year over year to 10.5 MMT.
Price premiums for high-protein wheat are expected to persist into early 2018/19.
A tight high-protein wheat supply supports premiums for HRW and HRS, which lifts the price of hard wheat relative to feed-grade wheat.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.