U.S. Wheat Associates reports mixed global winter wheat conditions as of late March. Snow across Russia and Ukraine is protecting crops from a recent cold snap but delaying spring planting.
Stratégie Grains forecasts Russian 2018/19 wheat output at 77.0 MMT, sharply lower than 2017/18.
A forecast drop in Russian wheat output tightens Black Sea export supply and supports wheat prices. Snow cover limits winter kill risk, so the net effect is modest for now.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.