
Argus' basket of dry bulk fertilizer freight rates rose $5.50/t in a week to $31.83/t, the highest since 2015. The Baltic MAP-to-Brazil rate reached a record $42-44/t as Russian Baltic ports face ice restrictions from March.
Record fertilizer freight costs from Baltic ports raise landed fertilizer prices into Brazil and other importers, supporting fertilizer prices. Higher freight also reflects demand from grain and soybean shipments that compete for the same bulk tonnage.
After 31 past bullish logistics events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.9%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 49 past bullish logistics events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.