Fertilizer prices continue to climb, though supply has not yet been a problem, according to StoneX fertilizer director Josh Linville. He warned of barge constraints from different flood stages on the lower Mississippi, slow rail service, and a shortage of truckers.
Linville also said the entire Corn Belt could begin planting on the same day, and the logistics would not be in place to handle it.
Transport bottlenecks during peak spring application could tighten nitrogen supply and keep fertilizer costs high, which raises input costs for corn growers and feeds into corn price expectations.
After 49 past bullish logistics events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.