Members of the BMWED union, the third-largest US railroad union, voted against ratifying a tentative contract with Class I railroads, so negotiations resume to avert a strike that could begin November 19. Grain dealers say a strike would likely disrupt most of the Northern Plains harvest and push more grain onto rails as barge traffic is constrained.
A possible US rail strike threatens to halt grain movement from the Northern Plains during harvest, raising basis and freight costs and supporting prices for corn, soybeans and wheat in affected areas.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 206 past bullish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.6%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.