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Urea CFR values rose in Brazil, the US Gulf and parts of Europe this week, mainly because of higher freight rates rather than stronger demand. Chinese export clearances have been halted, and processed phosphate prices are rising.
Brazilian granular potash prices fell.
Higher freight costs are lifting delivered fertilizer prices even without new demand, and Chinese restrictions keep supply tight, so buyers face higher delivered costs for urea and phosphates while potash eases.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganDec 11, 2023After 49 past bullish logistics events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 31 past bullish logistics events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.9%), and +1.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
