Fertilizer freight rates on some routes have started to rise after falling for seven weeks. Argus tracked a $1.25/t weekly increase across four phosphate routes, including Morocco and the US to Brazil.
The rise follows an uptick in marine bunker fuel prices in Singapore from late April.
Higher freight costs erode supplier netbacks and push up delivered phosphate prices, which squeezes margins for importers. Higher bunker fuel also points to firmer shipping costs more broadly.
After 31 past bullish logistics events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.9%), and +1.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.