
Australian urea prices have drifted down near or below pre-war levels, with stocks at high mid-season volumes. Concerns are rising over availability and cost of MAP, DAP and superphosphate, mainly sourced from the Middle East, which could be constrained by Red Sea hostilities.
Red Sea disruption threatens Middle East phosphate shipments to Australia, supporting phosphate prices while urea stays weak.
After 64 past logistics events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.3%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 31 past bullish logistics events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.9%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.