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International fertilizer prices are at unseasonal highs, with some reaching historic levels. Ammonia supply disruptions, including an unplanned shutdown of SAFCO IV in Saudi Arabia and a lengthy Ma'aden unit outage, are pushing urea and nitrate prices up.
Supply outages in ammonia feed directly into urea costs, tightening nitrogen availability and lifting fertilizer input costs for grain growers.
After 49 past bullish logistics events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.