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The WTO-AXSMarine tracker shows fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz staying near zero in early September 2026. Middle Eastern producers are rerouting cargoes via the Red Sea, Suez and pipelines at higher cost.
Iran and Oman agreed on safe shipping coordinates in August, but insurance and security concerns have kept traffic from recovering. Sulfur prices remain above $1,000/t, and phosphate output is being cut in Egypt, Brazil and India.
With roughly 20% of global nitrogen trade normally passing through Hormuz, the blockage keeps urea supply tight and raises freight costs. Reduced phosphate output from sulfur shortages supports DAP prices.
ukragroconsult.comSep 14, 2026After 49 past bullish logistics events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 31 past bullish logistics events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.9%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
