No non-Iranian granular urea has cleared the Strait of Hormuz since mid-October, leaving up to 919,000 tonnes of Hormuz-bound urea stranded. Middle East urea prices sit far below April's $780/t peak.
Stranded Gulf urea cargoes tighten physical supply outside the region, supporting nitrogen fertilizer costs for feed grain producers, while low regional prices reflect weak local demand.
After 49 past bullish logistics events, UREA moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.