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The European Commission proposed import tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers, excluding ammonia. If approved, they would start July 1, 2025, rising to between EUR 315 and EUR 430 per tonne by 2028, on top of the existing 6.5% duty.
Russia supplied about 25% of EU DAP, MAP, NPK and NPS imports in January to October 2024.
Higher tariffs on Russian product will shift trade flows toward Morocco and the Middle East, raising European delivered prices for phosphates and urea.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
EU proposal on 2025-02-03 to tariff Russian and Belarusian fertilizers threatens import supply to Europe, and the title explicitly links it to urea rising that day.
