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An analysis of Northern Hemisphere grain shipping notes that the US and Canada account for a large share of tonne-mile demand, mainly for Panamax vessels. It highlights North American drought, with Canada's wheat and coarse grain estimate down by a third to 23 million tonnes and US output also reduced.
Smaller North American crops reduce export tonnage, which weakens Panamax demand, but drought-cut supplies also support grain prices. The net effect on freight and grain values depends on how much the export shortfall offsets the strong demand for vessels.
tradeviews.netTradeviewsAug 20, 2021Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
