
Europe's grain harvest has been slowed by showers and a late season, with about 20% of wheat harvested. French wheat quality is falling, with 75% rated good to excellent, and the Strategie Grains forecast was lowered to 37-37.5 million tonnes.
Benelux, German and Polish crops face quality problems, and German winter barley harvest is well behind.
Lower wheat quality reduces milling-grade supply and supports prices for better lots. Downgraded wheat is more likely to move into feed use, which could cap feed grain prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.