Wheat harvests in Spain and Italy are shrinking because of heat and dryness during grain filling. MARS puts Spanish soft wheat about 31% below last year, and Italian soft wheat yields fell to 5.37 t/ha.
Ukraine's crop also declined.
Losses in several southern EU countries add to the smaller regional crop and reduce exportable wheat supply, supporting prices for wheat feed alternatives.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.