
Rain was forecast for drought-hit eastern Ukraine and southern Russia, but warm, damp weather could let winter grains grow prematurely and leave new sprouts vulnerable to frost. Russian wheat prices rose $3 to $237 per ton, with Egypt the largest buyer in the first half of the season.
Soybeans and drought concerns in South America were also highlighted.
Dry weather in South America and Black Sea wheat-region risks support grain prices, while strong Russian export demand from Egypt tightens wheat supply.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.