
Southern New South Wales grain crops are under acute moisture stress as temperatures climb into the low to mid 30s with little rain expected. Farmers are cutting more crops for hay, and further downgrades to the national wheat and barley crop appear likely.
Heat and dry conditions during grain fill point to further cuts in Australian wheat and barley supply, which supports export prices and feed grain values.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.