China's State Council issued guidance on restructuring the petrochemical industry, calling for elimination of excess capacity and tighter control over new production capacity. The measures specifically cover urea and ammonium phosphate.
Limiting new urea and ammonium phosphate capacity constrains future supply growth in a major exporting country, which supports fertilizer prices.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.