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Vietcap raised its 2023 average Middle East urea price forecast to USD 360/t and its 2024 forecast to USD 370/t. The firm cites China's urea export restrictions, Russia's extension of nitrogen export quotas through end-2024, and possibly lower EU exports as drivers, with urea futures recovering to about USD 380/t in mid-November from a late-June low near USD 260/t.
Expected policy-driven export curbs from China and Russia support nitrogen fertilizer prices into 2024, raising input costs for feed grain and oilseed producers.
vietcap.com.vnVIETCAPNov 17, 2023After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
