China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued guidance on April 7 to strictly control new phosphate chemical capacity. Phosphate rock prices have risen since April on supply constraints, and large producers are tightening their rock supplies.
Limits on new chemical capacity and tighter rock supply in China support higher phosphate rock and DAP prices in global markets.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.