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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an ENSO advisory confirming La Niña conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific. It assigns an 87% chance of La Niña persisting through December 2021 to February 2022, with ENSO-neutral expected to return in March to May 2022.
A second-year La Niña typically brings drier conditions to Argentina, southern Brazil and the US southern Plains, raising the risk of lower soybean, corn and wheat output and supporting feed grain and meal prices.
cpc.ncep.noaa.govOct 14, 2021After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
