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NOAA's June 2021 ENSO update expects neutral conditions through the summer, with a 78% chance of neutral in June-August. La Niña odds rise through the fall, reaching 53% for November-January.
A developing La Niña later in 2021 raises the risk of dryness in Argentina, southern Brazil and the US Plains, a bullish factor for soybean meal and corn into the 2021/22 crop year.
snowbrains.comWeatherBrainsJun 10, 2021After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
