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Moody's reports that persistent La Niña drought in southern Brazil caused harvest failures in soybean, first-season corn and wheat in 2021-22. It cut Brazil's first-quarter 2022 agricultural GDP by 8%, and forecasts suggest La Niña will continue into 2023.
Another poor southern Brazil crop would tighten soybean and corn export supplies, supporting meal and feed grain prices.
moodys.comNavin Peiris, Sharon Gourdji, Ashutosh PandeyNov 21, 2022After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
