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The US Seasonal Drought Outlook discussion notes a 77% chance La Niña persists through spring 2022 and a possible transition to ENSO-neutral in May-July. Dryness has already affected the West, with reservoirs and groundwater below normal.
Persistent western dryness and La Niña signals raise concern for Plains and western crop production, a mildly bullish factor for US feed grains and wheat.
cpc.ncep.noaa.govMar 1, 2022After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
