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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued its July ENSO diagnostic discussion maintaining a La Niña Advisory. La Niña is favored to persist through 2022, with a 60% chance in July-September and 62-66% odds into the northern fall and early winter.
A prolonged La Niña raises the risk of dryness in South America and the US Plains, which can cut soybean, corn and wheat supplies and support feed grain and meal prices.
cpc.ncep.noaa.govJul 14, 2022After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
