Half of global nitrogen exports controlled by two powerful players

After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Mar 9, 2026European nitrogen market rallies on gas price hike, Iran conflicts | S&P Global+3.4%
• Apr 29, 2026As nitrogen-based fertilizer prices soar, global food inflation looms - The HinduBusinessLine-9.4%
• Jun 28, 2022Insight: Global crop problems point to years of high food prices | Reuters+5.8%
• Mar 24, 2026Global fertilizer prices have reached record levels, but what to expect next?+2.0%
• Jul 29, 2022Gas supply issues in Europe cause havoc with Nitrogen prices.+17.6%

After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Apr 29, 2026As nitrogen-based fertilizer prices soar, global food inflation looms - The HinduBusinessLine+4.5%
• Mar 24, 2026Global fertilizer prices have reached record levels, but what to expect next?+5.5%
• Nov 3, 2025China export controls emerge as factor in rising fertilizer prices - Nikkei Asia+0.0%
• Jun 27, 2024Analyst remains concerned about nitrogen fertilizer market - Brownfield Ag News+1.2%
• Apr 21, 2026Global fertiliser market facing prolonged period of strain from Middle East disruption – industry report+0.3%