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China reportedly plans to allow only about 4 Mt of phosphate exports this year, versus a normal 9-10 Mt. India is seeking 1.5 Mt of urea with shipment by end-July, and US tariff litigation is adding uncertainty to phosphate supply.
A sharply reduced Chinese phosphate quota tightens global supply while India's urea tender signals strong demand, both supporting fertilizer prices. Higher input costs eventually pass through to feed grain and oilseed production economics.
stonex.comGustian FarrowMay 29, 2025After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports China will allow only about 4 Mt of phosphate exports versus a normal 9-10 Mt, a supply constraint that supports DAP prices; the 05-29 date falls after the 05-28 move, so it may reflect information already circulating.
