China has temporarily banned exports of phosphate fertilizers, with state-owned producers required to halt shipments until at least June 2022. The government cited domestic price protection, high energy costs and reduced domestic output.
China is the world's largest phosphate exporter, and buyers such as India and Pakistan had relied on its diammonium phosphate and urea.
Removing the largest phosphate exporter from the market tightens global DAP and phosphate supply during the Northern Hemisphere application season, which supports higher prices for feed-grain producers' fertilizer costs and raises the risk of tighter grain supply.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.